Sea Side Scrap Book » Future Book Betting Pitfalls And How To Avoid Them

Future Book Betting Pitfalls And How To Avoid Them

Betting on sports \’futures\’ is an enjoyable and potentially profitable way to wager, but there are several potential risks that can lead to losses. Here\’s a rundown of things to avoid:

Don\’t bet at the first place you look: In other words, shop around for the best price. This is essential to all aspects of sports betting, but especially important with futures wagers. You\’ll find more disparity between prices from book to book on futures than any other betting proposition. From a theoretical standpoint, a little work can yield much better value. From a practical standpoint, that means a higher payout should you win. The reason for this is that individual sportsbooks\’ aren\’t as worried about what the other guys are doing as they are with most other bets. Once the futures \”market\” is set books move the lines almost exclusively on their own financial position. The market simply doesn\’t respond as quickly to futures wagers as it does to individual game lines so it is essential to do the extra work to get the best price on your proposition.

In a competitive field, don\’t obsess with picking the winner: This may sound like a strange concept, but once you understand the theory behind it it makes perfect sense. In a large field–the NCAA basketball tournament is a perfect example–the top few favorites are invariably priced at odds that are less than the \’true odds\’ of them winning. On the other hand, there are always teams that fly \’under the radar\’ available at higher prices that present a betting overlay.

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To put this in more theoretical terms, the \”true odds\” of Duke winning the NCAA Championship are almost certainly higher than the price we\’re getting. Obviously, determining the \”true odds\”, or actual probability of a future event is an inexact science but think of it this way: if the NCAA tournament was played 100 times would Duke wind up winning 50 of those? Given the number of other good teams and the propensity for upsets along the way, its doubtful. For the sake of argument, lets say that Duke has a 33% chance to win the tournament. That means that I wouldn\’t consider a bet on Duke to be a good value unless I was getting a price that a) accurately reflected the true probability of their winning and b) gave me some compensation for assuming the \”risk of the unknown\” inherent in taking the position so far in advance. At +500 I might be interested, but at +200 the value just isn\’t there.

Note that the more competitive the market, the more difficult it is to find good value on the favorites. Since you can make a case for quite a few teams to win the NCAA tournament at this point this particular futures market is clearly a very competitive one. In a less competitive marketplace it might be possible to \”pick the winner\” and have it be a good value though you will pay a price for this. Here\’s a (thankfully) hypothetical example: let\’s say the UFC decided to hold a one night round robin tournament with 5 competitors. Competitor #1 would be heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar. The other four competitors would be professional figure skaters Elvis Stojko, Rudy Gallindo, Brian Boitano and Evgeni Plushinko. Even if he didn\’t bring his \”A game\”, Lesnar would be essentially have a 100% certainty of beating the four untrained fighters, who also happen to be rather effeminate. If a sportsbook installed Lesnar as a -1000 favorite a bet on the 63 265 pound takedown would still be theoretically a good value. It\’s always difficult to risk so much to win a little, but from a strictly theoretical standpoint its a good play.

Don\’t get seduced by big underdogs: Sports betting is not a place to make the \”big killing\”. It may happen occasionally, but more often it doesn\’t. While a sports book might offer a huge price on a cellar dwelling team to win the World Series, the big payback does not mean its a good value. On a practical level, there\’s probably nothing wrong with throwing a few bucks on a wager like this with a huge payback if the impossible occurs. My only problem with this is that making too many bets like this just perpetuates bad sports betting habits. If you\’re strictly a recreational player, no big deal. If you aspire to bet professionally, or at least want to pursue it with some degree of seriousness I\’ve always maintained that you need to develop discipline that\’s not situational. In other words, if you want to be a serious sports bettor you need to approach it with a consistent level of seriousness at all times. If you want to chase a huge, life altering jackpot go to Las Vegas and play the Megabucks slots or buy a Powerball ticket.

Simply stated, the concept of value works the same at the bottom of the wagering ladder as it does at the top. Even if you\’re betting a big underdog at a huge price make sure that it accurately reflects the \’true odds\’ of the event occurring.

Don\’t bet one-sided futures or propositions: Though many of these are not futures per se, a lot of sportsbooks offer silly propositions on nonsport events as a way to get publicity, or just to be funny. Its important to make a distinction between this type of silly bet and more realistic nonsport propositions which frequently present good wagering value. Im talking the really outlandish stuff here. Not too long ago, a sportsbook posted a line on Martians landing on earth and painting the White House red by the end of the year. The \”YES\” was +2500 or thereabouts, which is far from reflective of the \”true odds\” of this unlikely event. Even if you\’re the type that collects classic Art Bell shows on tape and believes in UFOs you wouldn\’t place the probability of this happening at more than a fraction of a percent. The book only offered the \”YES\” side of the proposition, meaning that you couldn\’t lay even a huge price on the more likely outcome. Another book had a futures offering for what would happen first with Ashton Kutcher, Demi Moore and Bruce Willis. All of the options were very unlikely–Ashton and Bruce fighting on PPV and my favorite–and the longest odds–Ashton, Bruce and Demi hopping in bed together and releasing a porno video documenting the event. You\’d receive a sizable payback if any of the events ever transpired, but I\’m not exactly sure how to compute the \”true odds\” on \”when pigs fly.

Ross Everett is a freelance writer and highly respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.