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Understanding The Kentucky Derby For Horse Racing Novices

The Kentucky Derby takes place every year on the first Saturday in May, and its a race that many horse racing novices like to follow. Along with the Breeders’ Cup and the other ‘Triple Crown’ races, the Derby attracts the most mainstream attention. Understanding the intricacies of horse racing is a very involved study.

A true fluency in horse racing takes extensive study, but here are a few concepts that can help anyone better understand and enjoy the Kentucky Derby. Until recently, the Derby was a race dominated by the favorite. Since Spectacular Bid won the Derby in 1979, however, you can count the favorites who’ve won the race on one hand with fingers left over. In other words, the easiest way to pare down the field for a horse racing novice is to simply eliminate the popular favorite from consideration.

So why has the favorite done so poorly in recent years? One theory suggests that it is a by-product of the hype surrounding the race. Novice horse fans back the favorite, making it more of a popularity contest than anything else. The reality is that the horse with the most hype is not always the best horse.

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Another important component of Kentucky derby success is the post position of the horses. The innermost positions (1 through 5) have produced over 40% of all Derby winners, while the outer post positions (11 through 20) have had only 13% winners. Note that in some years there might not be that many horses in the race, which would help partially explain the poor performance of the outer start positions. Still, for the purposes of understanding a single race eliminating all of the less favorable start positions is a good idea.

A couple more factors to consider are the horse’s gender and breeding lineage. A couple of simple rules can be applied here–first of all, forget all horses that aren’t intact males (geldings and fillies). Over 90% of all Derby winners have been intact males. Then, eliminate any horse that wasn’t born in the state of Kentucky. This stipulation is starting to change, but for the time being is a good rule to apply for the novice. Over 80% of all Derby winners have been born in Kentucky.

Also, take a look at dosage index numbers. For the novice, there’s no real reason to worry about what they mean or how they’re figured but the general rule of thumb is to look for a horse with a dosage index of 4.00 or less. Since 1984, over half of all Derby winners have fit this criteria.

For a more serious introduction to horse racing, check out the many books available on the subject at any large bookstore. For a casual fan who just follows the ‘big races’ these rules will help you get a decent grasp on the Kentucky Derby and understand who will win and why.

Ross Everett is a widely published freelance writer and respected authority on World Cup betting. His writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.

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